WASDE-480-14 March 2010 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.76 3.00 3.14 3.14 Harvested : 2.75 2.98 3.10 3.10 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 7,219 6,846 7,085 7,085 : : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.3 29.4 30.4 30.4 Production : 198.4 203.7 219.9 219.9 Imports : 23.9 19.2 21.0 21.0 Supply, total : 261.6 252.4 271.3 271.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 127.4 128.4 130.5 130.5 Exports, total 4/ : 104.7 93.6 101.0 100.0 Rough : 37.7 31.1 37.0 39.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 67.1 62.5 64.0 61.0 Use, total : 232.2 222.0 231.5 230.5 Ending stocks : 29.4 30.4 39.8 40.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 12.80 16.80 14.05-14.55 13.90-14.40 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.05 2.35 2.27 2.27 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,980 6,522 6,743 6,743 Beginning stocks : 28.5 19.0 20.1 20.1 Production : 143.2 153.3 152.7 152.7 Supply, total 7/ : 189.4 188.2 190.8 190.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 91.3 103.0 99.5 99.5 Exports 8/ : 79.1 65.1 70.0 69.0 Use, total : 170.4 168.1 169.5 168.5 Ending stocks : 19.0 20.1 21.3 22.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 12.40 14.90 12.90-13.40 12.70-13.20 : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.63 0.84 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,924 8,063 8,010 8,010 Beginning stocks : 10.0 9.1 8.0 8.0 Production : 55.2 50.5 67.1 67.1 Supply, total 7/ : 70.8 61.9 78.1 78.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 36.1 25.3 31.0 31.0 Exports 8/ : 25.7 28.5 31.0 31.0 Use, total : 61.8 53.9 62.0 62.0 Ending stocks : 9.1 8.0 16.1 16.1 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 14.60 24.80 17.50-18.00 17.45-17.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2007/08-0.8; 2008/09-1.3; 2009/10-2.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-480-24 March 2010 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 World 3/ : 75.10 434.09 29.26 428.24 31.26 80.95 United States : 1.27 6.34 0.76 4.08 3.35 0.94 Total foreign : 73.83 427.75 28.50 424.16 27.92 80.01 Major exporters 4/ : 16.03 146.56 0.31 122.17 22.31 18.43 India : 11.43 96.69 0.00 90.47 4.65 13.00 Pakistan : 0.70 5.70 0.00 2.70 3.00 0.70 Thailand : 2.51 19.80 0.01 9.60 10.01 2.71 Vietnam : 1.39 24.38 0.30 19.40 4.65 2.02 Major importers 5/ : 13.70 62.88 11.44 72.87 0.72 14.43 Brazil : 1.16 8.20 0.42 8.25 0.55 0.97 EU-27 6/ : 1.14 1.76 1.57 3.19 0.15 1.13 Indonesia : 4.61 37.00 0.35 36.35 0.00 5.61 Nigeria : 0.47 3.00 1.80 4.50 0.00 0.77 Philippines : 4.87 10.48 2.57 13.50 0.00 4.42 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.34 2.05 3.49 5.42 0.02 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 0.60 10.73 0.05 10.25 0.54 0.59 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.48 1.33 1.57 2.98 0.00 0.39 China : 35.92 130.22 0.30 127.45 0.97 38.02 Egypt : 0.37 4.39 0.02 3.34 0.75 0.69 Japan : 2.41 7.93 0.60 8.18 0.20 2.56 Mexico : 0.14 0.18 0.58 0.70 0.01 0.19 South Korea : 0.70 4.41 0.25 4.67 0.00 0.69 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) World 3/ : 80.95 447.42 27.15 437.15 28.72 91.22 United States : 0.94 6.52 0.61 4.10 2.99 0.97 Total foreign : 80.01 440.91 26.54 433.05 25.73 90.24 Major exporters 4/ : 18.43 150.09 0.80 122.95 19.62 26.74 India : 13.00 99.15 0.00 91.05 2.10 19.00 Pakistan : 0.70 6.70 0.00 3.40 3.00 1.00 Thailand : 2.71 19.85 0.30 9.50 8.57 4.79 Vietnam : 2.02 24.39 0.50 19.00 5.95 1.96 Major importers 5/ : 14.43 64.61 11.63 74.83 0.82 15.02 Brazil : 0.97 8.57 0.65 8.53 0.65 1.01 EU-27 6/ : 1.13 1.68 1.32 2.97 0.14 1.02 Indonesia : 5.61 38.30 0.25 37.09 0.01 7.06 Nigeria : 0.77 3.20 1.75 5.15 0.00 0.57 Philippines : 4.42 10.75 2.60 13.65 0.00 4.12 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.43 1.67 3.87 5.79 0.02 1.15 Selected other : Burma : 0.59 10.15 0.03 9.55 1.05 0.17 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.39 1.50 1.30 2.87 0.00 0.32 China : 38.02 134.33 0.34 133.00 0.78 38.90 Egypt : 0.69 4.39 0.02 4.00 0.30 0.79 Japan : 2.56 8.03 0.66 8.33 0.20 2.72 Mexico : 0.19 0.18 0.59 0.78 0.01 0.17 South Korea : 0.69 4.84 0.25 4.96 0.00 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-27. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-480-25 March 2010 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 93.34 436.28 28.46 437.12 31.05 92.50 March : 91.22 440.28 28.84 440.57 30.56 90.93 United States : February : 0.97 7.03 0.67 4.17 3.23 1.27 March : 0.97 7.03 0.67 4.17 3.20 1.31 Total foreign : February : 92.37 429.25 27.80 432.96 27.82 91.23 March : 90.24 433.25 28.17 436.40 27.36 89.62 Major exporters 4/ : February : 24.74 135.40 1.00 118.05 21.30 21.79 March : 26.74 137.90 0.80 120.35 21.55 23.54 India Feb : 17.00 84.50 0.20 86.70 2.00 13.00 Mar : 19.00 87.00 0.00 89.00 2.00 15.00 Pakistan Feb : 1.00 6.20 0.00 2.60 3.80 0.80 Mar : 1.00 6.20 0.00 2.60 3.80 0.80 Thailand Feb : 4.79 20.40 0.30 9.60 10.00 5.89 Mar : 4.79 20.40 0.30 9.60 10.00 5.89 Vietnam Feb : 1.96 24.30 0.50 19.15 5.50 2.11 Mar : 1.96 24.30 0.50 19.15 5.75 1.86 Major importers 5/ : February : 15.08 64.77 12.03 76.04 0.51 15.33 March : 15.02 64.68 12.31 75.99 0.48 15.54 Brazil Feb : 1.01 7.82 0.80 8.60 0.30 0.73 Mar : 1.01 7.82 0.80 8.60 0.30 0.73 EU-27 6/ Feb : 1.02 1.99 1.35 3.11 0.14 1.12 Mar : 1.02 1.99 1.35 3.11 0.14 1.12 Indonesia Feb : 7.06 38.80 0.25 37.60 0.02 8.49 Mar : 7.06 38.80 0.25 37.60 0.02 8.49 Nigeria Feb : 0.57 3.40 1.60 5.10 0.00 0.47 Mar : 0.57 3.40 1.80 5.30 0.00 0.47 Philippines Feb : 4.12 10.20 2.60 13.79 0.00 3.14 Mar : 4.12 10.10 3.00 13.79 0.00 3.44 Sel. Mideast 7/Feb : 1.21 2.07 4.17 6.09 0.05 1.30 Mar : 1.15 2.07 3.85 5.83 0.02 1.21 Selected other : Burma Feb : 0.17 10.73 0.00 9.85 0.80 0.25 Mar : 0.17 10.73 0.00 9.85 0.80 0.25 C. Am & Car. 8/Feb : 0.32 1.46 1.54 3.00 0.00 0.32 Mar : 0.32 1.49 1.52 3.02 0.00 0.31 China Feb : 42.92 137.00 0.35 133.50 1.50 45.27 Mar : 38.90 137.00 0.30 134.50 0.85 40.85 Egypt Feb : 0.79 4.37 0.01 4.00 0.60 0.58 Mar : 0.79 4.37 0.01 4.00 0.60 0.58 Japan Feb : 2.72 7.62 0.70 8.20 0.20 2.64 Mar : 2.72 7.62 0.70 8.20 0.20 2.64 Mexico Feb : 0.17 0.19 0.60 0.78 0.01 0.17 Mar : 0.17 0.19 0.60 0.78 0.01 0.17 South Korea Feb : 0.83 4.91 0.30 4.98 0.00 1.06 Mar : 0.83 4.91 0.30 4.98 0.00 1.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-27. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2009/10 rice supply and use balance. On the use side, domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago; however, all rice exports for 2009/10 are lowered 1 million cwt to 100 million. Rough exports are raised 2 million cwt, while combined milled and brown exports (on a rough- equivalent basis) are lowered 3.0 million. Long-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 69.0 million, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged at 31.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.8 million cwt, 1.0 million above last month, and up 10.4 million from 2008/09. The 2009/10 long-grain season-average price is projected at $12.70 to $13.20 per cwt, down 20 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short- grain price is projected at $17.45 to $17.95 per cwt, down 5 cents on each end of the range. The all rice season- average price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.40 per cwt, down 15 cents on both ends of the range. The price projections are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through mid-February and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year. Global prices have weakened over the last month due in part to a softening in import demand and an increase in available supplies of the major exporters. Global 2009/10 rice production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are increased from last month. The 4.0- million-ton increase in world production to 440.3 million is due mostly to increases for India and Bangladesh, up 2.5 million and 1.6 million, respectively. The production changes for both India and Bangladesh are based on information received in March from the Agricultural Counselor’s office in New Delhi and official in-country statistics. Small production increases are made in the European Union, Cuba, and Malaysia. Production is lowered slightly in Venezuela, Chile, and the Philippines. World consumption is projected at a record 440.6 million tons, up 3.4 million from last month, and up 1 percent from 2008/09. The increase in consumption is due mostly to increases for India, Bangladesh, and China. Vietnam’s 2009/10 exports are raised to 5.75 million tons, while China’s exports are lowered to 0.85 million. Imports are raised for the Philippines, Malaysia, Nigeria, and South Africa, but lowered for Saudi Arabia and India. Global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons to 90.9 million due mostly to a reduction in China’s stocks. China’s 2009/10 ending stocks are estimated at 40.8 million tons, down 4.4 million from a month ago, and down about 0.5 percent from 2008/09. The changes in China’s supply and use balance for 2008/09 and 2009/10 are based mostly on a report from the Agricultural Counselor’s office in Beijing. The report raised domestic consumption in 2008/09 and 2009/10 by 4.0 million tons and 1.0 million, respectively. Partially offsetting the decline in China’s stocks are increases for India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and the Philippines. WASDE-480-8 March 2010 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Rice, milled : 2007/08 : 434.09 509.19 31.26 428.24 80.95 2008/09 (Est.) : 447.42 528.37 28.72 437.15 91.22 2009/10 (Proj.) : February : 436.28 529.62 31.05 437.12 92.50 March : 440.28 531.50 30.56 440.57 90.93 : : United States Rice, milled : 2007/08 : 6.34 8.37 3.35 4.08 0.94 2008/09 (Est.) : 6.52 8.07 2.99 4.10 0.97 2009/10 (Proj.) : February : 7.03 8.67 3.23 4.17 1.27 March : 7.03 8.67 3.20 4.17 1.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).